Stock Market Direction Weekly Closing Numbers

Market Direction: BULLISH alert issued 1/10/2019

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The economy

The S&P 500 dropped 1.9% on Friday, as weak manufacturing data out of Europe added to worries about the pace of global economic activity. Growth concerns were reflected by another drop in U.S. Treasury yields, the underperformance of the cyclical sectors, and a pullback in oil prices ($59.01/bbl, -$0.94, -1.6%). Friday's decline sent the S&P 500 back to the 2800 level.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.5%. The domestically-oriented Russell 2000 lost 3.6%, pressured by concerns that global economic weakness will catch up to the U.S. sooner rather than later.

Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower, led by materials (-3.0%), financials (-2.8%), and energy (-2.6%). Conversely, the utilities sector (+0.7%) was the lone group to finish higher.

Germany's Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.7 from 47.6 in February, serving as a reminder that output in a major export center remains weak. France's Manufacturing PMI (actual 49.8; prior 51.5) fell below 50.0, which indicated that the country's manufacturing sector was also in contraction.

The weak data sent investors flocking to safe-haven bonds, which drove the yield on the 10-yr German bund (-0.011%) into negative territory for the first time since 2016. The lower yields in Europe likely contributed to increased buying interest in U.S. Treasuries, which helped drive yields even lower.

The 2-yr yield dropped eight basis points to 2.32%, and the 10-yr yield dropped eight basis points to 2.46%. Strikingly, the spread between the 3-month yield (2.45%) and the 10-yr yield briefly inverted for the first since 2017. Like Treasuries, the dollar benefited from the flight to safety, lifting the U.S. Dollar Index 0.2% to 96.65.
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The market direction weekly closing numbers for the indexes this week compared to the initial BULLISH recommendation closing numbers:

Stock Market Closing Numbers
compared to Recommendation Numbers
	1/10/2019	3/22/2019	Difference
Dow Jones	24,001.90	25,502.32	1,500.42
Nasdaq	6,986.07	7,642.67	656.60
S&P 500	2,596.64	2,800.71	204.07

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