Market Direction: BULLISH alert issued 1/10/2019
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Market Direction Week Review: U.S. stocks edged lower last week, with some sector volatility (financials, industrials) and significant price swings in bonds. Disappointing European manufacturing data in combination with a more "dovish" Fed led the 10 year treasury yield to fall the most in two years and U.S. investment grade bonds to rise the most in four years. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, while signaling no rate hikes for the balance of 2019 acknowledging global uncertainty and muted inflation pressures. The Fed will likely continue to be a key driver of equity markets as officials negotiate the balance between rates, inflation and a healthy but slower-growing economy.
This week in Brexit news: With only 9 days remaining until the original deadline, on Wednesday (3/20) UK Prime Minister Theresa May requested a Brexit deadline delay, after Parliament failed last week to approve the previous deal she had negotiated with the European Union. Approval of the extension request was granted by EU leaders on Thursday (3/21). As I understand it, the extension pushes the deadline out to May 22, if Parliament agrees to the current Brexit deal, but only to April 12 if Parliament rejects it. This short delay is being at least partially driven by desires to complete the Brexit prior to upcoming European Parliament elections
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are scheduled to go to China next week with the intent of finalizing the terms of a new trade deal. The negotiations will focus on reaching an agreement that would lift existing tariffs in exchange for changes to China's trade practices and agreements to purchase more US goods, but President Trump says those tariffs will not be lifted immediately. Following that meeting, Chinese trade officials and President Xi are expected to attend a summit at President Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida toward the end of April.
How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 down 0.8%, the Nasdaq down 0.6%, and the Dow down 1.3%.
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Market Direction This Week: Weaker economic data and a more dovish Fed have finally brought to light that there is a global economic slowdown underway. And while it’s too early to know whether or not a recession is imminent, a more cautious near-term approach may still be prudent.
It was a bit puzzling what exactly is driving the stock market direction higher until Friday’s decline, because there seemed to be a real lack of upside catalysts; one possibility was corporate share repurchase programs. With 215 companies and more than $225B already authorized for buybacks, 2019 is on track to be the highest year ever.
The VIX IV Gap is an extremely short-term indicator and it implies that we could see a small bounce this week, There seems to be the same number of upgrades as downgrades this week, with the VIX now about 4 points above its recent 5-month lows, it seems likely that next week we could see more volatility.
For the market direction abroad, this week UK gross domestic product (GDP), plus a German IFO reading and German and Japanese unemployment figures are on the list to be reported.
Meanwhile, key corporate news is limited to United Utilities and Bellway.
Economic Calendar: Consumer Confidence (3/26), GDP (3/27), Personal Income & Spending (3/29), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (3/29)
Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: KBH, CCL, FIVE, OLLI, LULU.
$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BULLISH. We strongly encourage you to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment of how this website has helped you we would like to know, email us. Building a community of investors one trade at a time. Share with a friend. Cha-ching!
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