Sunday, May 1, 2016

Market Direction Week of May 2, 2016













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Last Week Review: This past week was one of those times when we are reminded how quickly things can change. Early in the week the SPX had reached a technical golden cross, but it was simultaneously hitting the same upside technical resistance (around 2102) that it faced the previous week. Earnings reports have been solid (given the low expectations) and volatility was low. Janet Yellen, as she has so often in the past, managed to say just the right words to cause a moderate equity rally and crude oil prices were hitting 5-month highs. Then as if someone flipped a big sell switch, mid-day Thursday the sentiment shifted quickly. It seemed to be sparked by the lack of any new economic stimulus measures in Japan and exacerbated further by some fairly cautious statements from notorious investor Carl Icahn.

 How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 down 1.3%, the Nasdaq down 2.7%, and the Dow down 1.3%.

This Week: Another busy week on the economic front is ahead of us, headlined by Friday's jobs report. PMI and construction spending data will be released on Monday, vehicle sales will be released on Tuesday, and factory orders will be released on Wednesday.

Crude oil prices are solid, the Fed hit the sweet spot again and earnings have largely beaten the relatively low expectations. But equities have been stymied by global uncertainty and upside technical resistance.

Economic Calendar: ISM Mfg Index (5/2), International Trade (5/4), Factory Orders  (5/4), Employment Report (5/6)

Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: PCLN, CLX, REGN.
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