Market Direction Mid Week Update

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It's been 2,608 days since the bull market was born from the ashes of the Great Recession. On Friday the market upswing became the second-longest in American history, surpassing the streak that spanned 1949 to 1956.

It's been a remarkable rebound from the scary days of 2008 and early 2009 when fears of a collapse of the financial system caused stocks to crater.

Eventually, the worst-case scenario was removed by the government bailout of Wall Street. Smart investors who were quick to jump in on early signs of an economic recovery had the most to gain. The S&P 500 is up 212% since March 2009, quickly surpassing the 20% rally needed to be technically considered a bull market.

Yet the market comeback has been marked by suspicion and frequent panic attacks (see: early 2016, aka the worst start to a year ever). In many ways, that deep skepticism has helped keep the bull market alive by preventing investors from getting overly exuberant at times and inflating a new bubble.

Even Friday's bull market milestone should carry an asterisk because the S&P 500 is not at its high point, even though it is only 3% away from the record level of 2,134.72, set in May 2015. If the S&P 500 doesn't hit a new high soon, the record books would have to be amended to show the bull market actually ended in May 2015.

The question then is whether it is too late to get in. Or is this party going to last a bit longer? No one knows for sure (not even Warren Buffett) but it seems like it would take some good economic fortune for this to beat the longest bull market on record that went from 1987 to 2000. Stocks would have to avoid a bear market until 2021.

The key thing to watch here is the market's valuation, which is definitely on the rise. In fact, the S&P 500's ratio of price to forward earnings recently rose to the highest level since 2009, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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