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Market Direction Week Review: Stocks
recorded their best week in 11 years and posted back-to-back gains for the
first time in over a month, even though the S&P 500 remains about 25% off
its February high. The Federal Reserve announced open-ended asset purchases and
other measures to support the flow of credit to employers, consumers and
businesses. Additionally, Congress and the White House reached a deal on an unprecedented
$2 trillion stimulus package to offset the fallout from the coronavirus
outbreak. We believe a flattening of the infections curve in new coronavirus
cases globally is eventually needed for stocks to start looking past the
incoming decline in GDP and earnings, but policy support can help prevent this health crisis from evolving into a more prolonged, full-blown financial crisis.
Stocks rebounded from three-year lows, as investors appeared encouraged by further aggressive monetary policy actions and the passage of an unprecedented level of fiscal stimulus. (For our group chief investment officer’s latest perspective on the economic and market impact of the new coronavirus, please click here.) On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best day since 1933, and the S&P 500 Index experienced its largest daily rally since October 2008, with all the major U.S. equity indexes surging by around 9% to 11%. By the close of business on Thursday, the Dow had marked its best three-day stretch since 1931, although the major indexes surrendered a portion of their gains to close out the week.
Heavily beaten-down energy shares outperformed as oil prices stabilized somewhat and U.S. officials put pressure on Saudi Arabia to end its price war with Russia. Airline shares also bounced back at midweek as news arrived of a $60 billion bailout package for the industry as part of the stimulus bill, and a rebound in Boeing boosted the industrials sector. Utilities shares were also strong, while communication services shares lagged.
European shares rose over the week, snapping four consecutive weeks of losses, as
unprecedented economic stimulus measures in Europe and the U.S. calmed markets
and spurred bottom-picking. But stock markets remained well below record highs.
After a week of wild gyrations, the STOXX Europe 600 Index and the German, French,
and Italian benchmarks rebounded between 5% and 8%. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index
rose 5.95%, partly helped by a sharply weaker British pound, which favors
exporters, a significant part of the benchmark.
The
major indices rose until midweek before flattening off. From Monday to Friday,
the Shanghai Composite rose 4.2%, and the CSI 300 large-cap index gained 5.2%.
China
was the first country to get hit by the coronavirus and is the first country to
bring the outbreak under control. Only two new local cases were reported
between March 17 and March 24. A small number of new imported cases continue to
be reported—around 40 daily—as Chinese citizens return from overseas. However,
China's tightened immigration controls are proving effective at screening and
detecting these imported cases.
How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 up 10.3%,
the Nasdaq up 9.1%, and the Dow up 12.8%.
Market Direction This Week:We track the stock
market based on our Bullish and Bearish Alerts a new Bullish Alert
recently started on 3/26/20 and we suggested to our followers they can trade any
new long positions based on are model. We will continue to provide you the
current stock market conditions as they develop. The current stock market
environment is in an uptrend (see Market Direction Mid Week Update: Trading Strategies).
More market volatility is expected this week as
coronavirus and a slew of economic data releases keep investors on their toes.
Cases
of the virus are still on the rise, and the U.S. now has the most cases
globally, surpassing China and Italy. As of Sunday morning, there were 124,686
confirmed cases in the U.S. with over 2,100 confirmed deaths, according to Johns Hopkins data.
COVID-19
developments have been causing a frenzy among investors, and stocks continued
to whipsaw in either direction. Despite the violent swings, the Dow (^DJI)
rose 12.8% last week for its best weekly gain since 1938. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) jumped 10.3% and posted its best week since 2009.
President
Donald Trump officially signed a bipartisan $2 trillion economic stimulus bill in an
effort to aid struggling Americans amid the COVID-19 pandemic. “This round of
stimulus is the broadest in terms of scope and the most substantial in terms of
cost. In addition to assistance for larger distressed businesses, knowing
relief will be provided outright to American families via direct payments and
small businesses via potentially forgivable and interest free loans helped
restore hope and provided comfort to the markets,” Raymond James Chief
Investment Officer Larry James wrote in the March 27th edition of Weekly
Headings. “The US economy will likely struggle temporarily, but the
combination of aggressive monetary policy and substantial fiscal stimulus
should deter the worst case scenarios from occurring.”
The standard caveat still applies; “President Trump’s tweets still trump everything else”.
Economic Calendar: Consumer Confidence (3/31), ISM Mfg Index (4/1), Trade Deficit (4/2), Employment Report (4/3)
Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: CALM, RH, KMX, STZ.
$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BULLISH. We strongly encourage you
to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we
may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned
and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment
of how this website has helped you we would like to know, email us.
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