Weekly Closing Numbers: Dow Strong in June

Market Direction: BULLISH alert issued 6/20/2019

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The economy

The stock market finished slightly lower on this quadruple-witching expiration Friday, as it cooled off from a big stretch of gains. The S&P 500 declined 0.1%, but it did set a new intraday high (2964.63) and finished the week higher by 2.2%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) and the Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%) trimmed their weekly gains to 2.4% and 3.0%, respectively. The Russell 2000 (-0.9%) underperformed but still finished the week with a gain of 1.8%.

It was a tight-ranged session with neither buyers nor sellers showing much conviction. Indications that the Fed and other central banks are leaning more dovish remained a measure of support for equities, which contributed to a flattish session instead of a pullback.

The S&P 500 energy (+0.8%), utilities (+0.5%), health care (+0.4%), and communication services (+0.4%) sectors were today's best performers. The real estate (-1.1%), industrials (-0.5%), and information technology (-0.5%) sectors trailed the pack.

Energy stocks continued to benefit from higher oil prices ($57.37/bbl, +$0.25, +0.4%) and also from an explosion at the East Coast's largest refinery on Friday. The move in oil wasn't that noticeable, especially considering it was only a fraction of its 9% weekly gain, but the underlying geopolitical driver had some investors feeling cautious.

After Iran shot down a U.S. military drone on Thursday, President Trump said he ordered a retaliatory strike on Tehran but scrapped the plans ten minutes prior to launch. Mr. Trump said he didn't think the damage inflicted would have been proportional to shooting down an unmanned drone.

Separately, Reuters reported that the Department of Commerce barred several more Chinese supercomputing companies from purchasing parts from U.S. companies. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 0.7%.

The news provided mixed signals ahead of planned talks with China next week. Earlier in the day, Vice President Mike Pence canceled a Monday speech that was expected to carry a hawkish tone, suggesting that the U.S. did not want to upset Beijing before the G-20 summit.

U.S. Treasuries backtracked from their best levels of the year, driving yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield increased six basis points to 1.78%, and the 10-yr yield increased seven basis points to 2.07%. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.4% to 96.20.
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The market direction weekly closing numbers for the indexes this week compared to the initial BULLISH recommendation closing numbers:

Stock Market Closing Numbers
compared to Recommendation Numbers
	6/20/2019	6/21/2019	Difference
Dow Jones	26,753.20	26,719.13	34.04
Nasdaq	8,05134	8,031.71	19.63
S&P 500	2,954.18	2,950.46	3.72

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