Market Direction Week of April 15, 2019

Market Direction: BULLISH alert issued 1/10/2019



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Market Direction Week Review: World markets ended the week nearly flat, digesting the balance of positive and negative news, none of which altered the current narrative. The IMF cut its 2019 global growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.5%, but noted that it expects growth to firm up in the second half of the year. The Brexit deadline was pushed out until October 31, while newly released Chinese March data (exports and bank lending) pointed to a rebound in economic activity. The week ended on a high note as markets were encouraged by solid bank earnings in the U.S. and a big acquisition in the energy space.

The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ are in a similar (near-term bullish) situation so a brief summary of each is provided.

S&P 500 Index ($SPX + 15 to 2,903): New six-month (intraday) high of 2,910 today; roughly 1% below all-time high of 2,940; bullish uptrend intact.

Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI + 33 to 26,475): Roughly 100 points below the five-month (intraday) high of 26,487 hit last Friday (BA’s early week sell-off hindering DJI performance); roughly 2% below all-time high of 26,95; bullish uptrend intact.

NASDAQ Composite ($COMPX + 26 to 7,973): New six-month (intraday) high of 7,992 today; roughly 2% below all-time high of 8,133; bullish uptrend intact.

Russell 2000 ($RUT + 5 to 1,584): The RUT moved above its 200-day SMA this week, which is a bullish technical event, but in my opinion the index really needs to clear the intraday high of 1,602 from back on February 25nd in order to clear resistance.

How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 up 0.5%, the Nasdaq up 0.6%, and the Dow flat 0.0%.

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Market Direction This Week: Next week we’ll get a steady dose of economic data, along with a barrage of earnings reports, so stay alert. Out of everything that I see slated on the economic docket I’ll be interested to see how Thursday’s Retail Sales report pans out since they have been sluggish over the past couple of months and the consumer is so important to U.S. economic activity.

First Quarter earnings season unofficially kicked off the large financial institutions, many bulls might be thinking “so far so good”. It’s not just that JPM posted a record quarter, beating on both the top and bottom line, but also the positive commentary we heard from CEO and well-respected veteran Jamie Dimon. Dimon said that the current economic expansion could go on for years, stating, “If you look at the American economy, the consumer is in good shape balance sheets are in good shape, people are going back to the workforce, companies have plenty of capital”. While one company’s results do not make a trend, it certainly is welcome rhetoric given the recent concerns around slowing global growth.

Europe still remains a bit of a question mark, but given the recent positive developments in trade negotiations, the Brexit extension, continued dovishness from the Fed and early indications of benign Q1 earnings, I’d be surprised if the SPX doesn’t make a push towards all-time highs in the near-term (even as early as next week).

Economic Calendar: Empire State Manufacturing (4/15), Capacity Utilization (4/16), Leading Indicators (4/18), Retail Sales (4/18)

Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: C, JNJ, NFLX, CSX, UNP.

$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BULLISH. We strongly encourage you to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment of how this website has helped you we would like to know, email us. Building a community of investors one trade at a time. Share with a friend. Cha-ching!

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