Market Direction Week of November 26, 2018©

Market Direction:BEARISH alert issued 11/23/2018 

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Last Week Review: In the holiday-shortened week, U.S. stocks had the worst Thanksgiving-week performance in seven years. Stock markets withdrew to the lows reached in late-October, erasing gains for the year and leaving investors wondering if the lower stock prices are a Black Friday bargain. Continued weakness in tech stocks, higher corporate bond spreads, crude oil declining for the seventh straight week, and disappointing earnings results from retailers all contributed to the negative sentiment. International stocks held up better and bonds helped stabilize portfolios. Market volatility tends to rise during times of greater uncertainty and when expectations are changing.

Stocks endured a second week of losses due mostly to sell-offs on Monday and Tuesday. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index performed worst, dragged down by declines in heavily weighted Internet and technology stocks, and was the only major index to dip under its late-October lows. Tech selling contributed to relative weakness in higher-valuation growth stocks, which underperformed slower-growing value shares for the fourth consecutive week. Energy stocks were also particularly weak, dragged down by a continuing tumble in oil prices, which reached their lowest level in over a year. The typically defensive utilities sector held up best. Markets were closed Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving, but trading volumes were somewhat elevated in advance of the holiday.

The week’s economic data were generally disappointing, even if they pointed to continued expansion. Wednesday brought word that core (excluding the volatile aircraft and defense segments) durable goods orders were roughly flat in October after a decline in September that was larger than originally estimated. Weekly jobless claims also rose to their highest levels since the summer, and the University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell a bit more than anticipated. Measures of manufacturing and services activity, released Friday, also missed expectations. Existing homes sales in October were a bright spot, rising more than expected in October and breaking a six-month streak of declines.

How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 down 3.8%, the Nasdaq down 4.3%, and the Dow down 4.4%.

This Week: Roughly 84% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 earnings and so far, approximately 60% have beat on the top line while 78% have beat on the EPS side. Both of these figures are below the respective 72% and 84% seen in the prior quarter and versus Q1’s respective 74% and 81% beat rates.

Key economic events this week are relative few, but we do have a Japan manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), plus PMIs from China, while the latest set of Fed minutes are published.

US earnings season is all but done, and in the UK big names are conspicuous by their absence.

Two anticipated events that investors will be focused on for clues about the pace of rate hikes and trade negotiations are a speech by Fed Chairman Powell to the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday and the G20 summit that runs Friday and Saturday. Major economic news includes home prices and consumer confidence on Tuesday, U.S. GDP revisions and new home sales on Wednesday, and personal income and spending on Thursday.

Economic Calendar: Consumer Confidence (11/27), GDP (11/28), International Trade (11/28), FOMC Minutes (11/28)

Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: CRM, VEEV, WB, VMW, PANW.

$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BEARISH. We strongly encourage you to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment of how this website has helped you we would like to know, email us. Share with a friend. Cha-ching.

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