Market Direction Week of November 12, 2018©

Market Direction:BULLISH alert issued 11/8/2018 

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Last Week Review: Stocks finished higher for the second week in a row, gaining back some ground following October's sharp pullback. Crude oil was the negative outlier, with prices falling for 10 consecutive days, and finishing down more than 20% from its recent high reached in early October. Waivers granted by the White House to major buyers of Iranian oil, a slowdown in growth in China, and supply concerns, all contributed to the downside pressure. The U.S. midterm elections dominated the headlines for most of the week, with few direct investment implications. The election outcome came in largely as expected, with Democrats in majority control of the House and Republicans in the Senate. As we have argued in the past, market forces are stronger than political forces. Investors should stay focused on their investment strategies rather than what they believe or hope the government will do in the future.

U.S. equity markets are encountering some selling pressure early Friday morning following October’s Producer Price Index report, which came in well above estimates (+0.6% vs. +0.2% est). This is the second day in a row that stocks have encountered some selling pressure but the SPX is still up over 2% on the week, thanks to Wednesday’s post-election relief rally. The Fed concluded a two-day FOMC meeting yesterday and, as expected, left rates unchanged and made little change in the tone of their follow-up statement. However, this morning’s hotter-than-expected inflation data appears to be making investors a little uneasy about whether this new data point will play a role in the Fed’s rate hike trajectory. At a scale that “pales by comparison” to Russia, Vice President Pence has accused China of meddling in US elections and attempting to oust President Trump. These allegations have come despite any evidence to support the claims, and in direct contradiction to the administration’s own Secretary of Homeland Security, Kirstjen Nielsen.

How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 up 2.1%, the Nasdaq up 0.7%, and the Dow up 2.8%.

This Week: Roughly 84% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 earnings and so far, approximately 60% have beat on the top line while 78% have beat on the EPS side. Both of these figures are below the respective 72% and 84% seen in the prior quarter and versus Q1’s respective 74% and 81% beat rates.

After weeks of activity and high profile events, this week is slightly quieter. UK data, such as the consumer price index (CPI) and unemployment, dominate the economic agenda, but we also have CPI from the US and the eurozone.

Key earnings this week are from Vodafone and Royal Mail in the UK, plus Cisco and Wal-Mart in the US.

Economic Calendar: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (11/13), CPI Index (11/14), Export and Import Prices (11/15), Retail Sales (11/15)

Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: HD, AAP, AMAT, NVDA, GOOS.

$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BULLISH. We strongly encourage you to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment of how this website has helped you we would like to know, email us. Share with a friend. Cha-ching.

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