Market Direction:BULLISH alert
issued 2/15/2018
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Are you the person who wants to improve your options trading by 50% or more?
Stock on the Radar (STAR)© is a service we provide. When there is a new stock recommendations for the week it is typically made available Sunday evening, so investors can prepare to take a position when the market opens Monday for trading. Our competitive advantage is great value to give you greater success as beginning options traders.
To view this trade just click the link below and purchase it for $5.00.
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Last Week Review: U.S. stocks were lower on the week, and volatility returned with plenty of news and economic releases for the market to digest. Investors initially celebrated the agreement of the revised NAFTA deal, now called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but enthusiasm quickly faded as the more important U.S. - China trade worries appeared to intensify. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note climbed to their highest level in seven years, and bonds sold off on the back of strong economic data. The latest jobs report pointed to continued strength in the U.S. labor market, reinforcing the Fed's path for raising rates. Technology and small-cap stocks led the losses as investors feared that higher rates will slow down the economy. In our view, strong earnings and economic growth justify a rising rate environment, and stocks can still perform well despite the increased volatility.
As the 4/1/2019 separation date approaches, Brexit negotiations and rhetoric are ramping up. After hitting an apparent stalemate last week on the issue of the customs border between the U.K. and Ireland, Prime Minister May this week seemed willing to negotiate on this issue of goods moving between the British mainland and Northern Ireland in exchange for allowing the U.K. and Northern Ireland to remain in the EU customs regime. Critical to this effort is avoiding any deal that might revive the conflict that existed for decades in this area, prior to the 1998 peace accord.
At a scale that “pales by comparison” to Russia, Vice President Pence has accused China of meddling in US elections and attempting to oust President Trump. These allegations have come despite any evidence to support the claims, and in direct contradiction to the administration’s own Secretary of Homeland Security, Kirstjen Nielsen.
Just before midnight Sunday (9/30), The US, Mexico and Canada agreed to a new trade agreement called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) which is intended to ultimately replace the existing NAFTA trade deal that has been in place since 1994. While some see the details as worsening, rather than improving upon existing NAFTA provisions, it does eliminate the possibility of a deepened North American trade war. On a related note, some strategists now expect the focus to shift back to China and many are forecasting a full-blown trade war that will result in tariffs on all $500B of imports to the U.S.
How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 down 1.0%, the Nasdaq down 3.2%, and the Dow flat 0.0%.
This Week: A variety of news and rising interest rates sparked an overdue pullback that should be limited to less than -4%; a welcome move that should bring in a healthy dose of skepticism. But continued strong fundamentals and earnings season optimism will likely prevail in the coming weeks.
It has been a rather volatile week driven by a variety of news stories and sharply higher interest rates. Economic data is still showing considerable strength, and earnings season is beginning with a high level of optimism. While concerns of further downside have escalated and the VIX is on the rise, a pullback is healthy because it helps limit complacency and it brings the SPX back in-line with its long-term trend again.
It is a relatively quiet week on all fronts until Friday, when US earnings season gets underway in earnest with third quarter (Q3) reports from some of the major American investment banks.
On the economic front, the UK’s trade balance and monthly gross domestic product (GDP), plus US consumer price index (CPI) readings, are the main events to look out for.
Economic Calendar: PPI Index (10/10), CPI Index (10/11), JOLTS (10/11), International Trade (10/12), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10/12)
Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: FAST, DAL, C, JPM, WFC, PNC.
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