Market Direction Week of September 24, 2018©

Market Direction:BULLISH alert issued 2/15/2018 

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Last Week Review: U.S. large-cap stocks advanced for the second week in a row, reaching new highs. Rising interest rates and trade tensions were in focus but did not weigh on markets last week, and investors should expect bouts of volatility. Nevertheless, we think the bull market will continue on the back of strong earnings and economic growth. We believe today's solid fundamental backdrop should give investors confidence to use periods of volatility to buy quality investments at lower prices, if appropriate for their situation.

In the United Kingdom (UK), Brexit negotiations and rhetoric have been escalating with Prime Minister Theresa May accusing the European Union (EU) and the European Council President, Donald Tusk of disrespecting the UK, after the EU said the latest plan “would not work”. The Prime Minister said while the two sides remained “a long way apart” on a number of issues, negotiations would continue.

On Monday (9/17) President Trump announced that the U.S. would impose a 10% tariff on an additional $200B of Chinese imports, effective next week Monday (9/24). This rate will be in effect until the end of 2018 at which time it will increase to 25%. China immediately retaliated with a 5% tariff on small aircraft, computers and textiles, and a 10% tariff on chemicals, meat, wheat and wine. Markets rallied on the news as tariffs from both sides were lower than expected.

How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 up 0.8%, the Nasdaq down 0.3%, and the Dow up 2.3%.

This Week: The combination of many bullish and bearish factors are converging next week indicating a sharp move in the markets; the direction of that move however is a question that can’t be answered until it happens.

On the one hand, the new tariffs imposed by both the U.S. and China are scheduled to take effect beginning on Monday (9/24), the Fed is virtually certain to raise interest rates on Wednesday (9/26), the window for corporate share buybacks is closing, and the SPX has moved into technically “overbought” territory.

On the other hand, the tariffs on both sides were less than expected, the economic data continues to be strong, an upside breakout can sometimes lead to more upside, and the last trading week of the quarter can sometimes spark a quarter-end “window dressing” rally.

Economic Calendar: FOMC Rate Decision (9/26), International Trade (9/27), Durable Goods (9/27), GDP (9/27), Personal Income and Spending (9/27)

Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: KBH, NKE, KMX, CCL, MKC.

$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BULLISH. We strongly encourage you to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment of how this website has helped you we would like to know, email us. Share with a friend. Cha-ching.

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