Market Direction Week of October 1, 2018©

Market Direction:BULLISH alert issued 2/15/2018 

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Last Week Review: U.S. stocks were lower on the week as trade tensions between the U.S. and China continued to mount. Other news from last week included the Federal Reserve’s decision increase its federal funds rate by 0.25%, making the new range 2.00% to 2.25%. The Fed also increased its forecast for economic growth this year to 3.1%. If the economy continues to grow, wages keep rising and inflation stays near the Fed’s 2% target, we expect continued quarterly increases to the federal funds rate. In addition, the Fed is steadily reducing its bond purchases to shrink its balance sheet. These actions mean monetary policy will slowly reduce the amount of stimulus for the economy. While the Fed now thinks the stance of monetary policy is less accommodative, we don’t think conditions have become tight enough to start to slow economic activity, and we believe economic fundamentals remain solid.

How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 down 0.5%, the Nasdaq down 0.3%, and the Dow down 1.1%.

This Week: UK and US purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) and US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) dominate what is a relatively quiet start to the new quarter.

Company news is practically non-existent, except for Tesco in the UK, which becomes the latest supermarket to release first-half numbers.

We’ll likely have a better sense of what impact tariffs will have on corporate profits in a couple weeks when Q3 earnings season kicks off, but until then the path of least resistance appears to be higher. I don’t see a lot of reason to be concerned heading into next week and with the SPX once again pushing off its 20-day SMA my outlook for next week is slightly bullish.

Economic Calendar: ISM Mfg Index (10/1), Factory Orders (10/4), Trade Balance (10/5), Employment Report (10/5)

Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: CALM, PEP, LEN, COST, STZ.

$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BULLISH. We strongly encourage you to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment of how this website has helped you we would like to know, email us. Share with a friend. Cha-ching.

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