Sunday, August 12, 2018

Market Direction Week of August 13, 2018©













Market Direction:BULLISH alert issued 2/15/2018 

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Last Week Review: U.S. large-cap stocks finished lower on the week, their first weekly decline since the end of June. Weighing on stocks were worries of financial and currency turmoil in Turkey as well as continued tariff announcements between the U.S. and China. We continue to believe most of the threats to raise tariffs are negotiation postures and will be resolved over time without a significant slowdown in global growth. But the current increases have hurt some severely. Remember that even if additional higher tariffs are imposed and may be painful, companies and consumers will likely react quickly and adjust to the new environment.

On Friday (8/10) equity markets opened weaker on news of a sharply falling Turkish lira. Already down nearly 20% against the dollar since the beginning of August, it fell another 13% on Friday. Additionally, the ECB (European Central Bank) expressed concern about the exposure of some European lenders to Turkey. Adding insult to injury, President Trump then announced a doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey.

In the latest salvo of the ongoing trade dispute with the US, on Wednesday (8/8) China confirmed that it intends to impose a 25% tariff on $16B of US imports starting on August 23rd. This announcement comes in response to the threat from the US last week, to increase the tariff on $200B in Chinese goods from 10% to 25%; this is scheduled to begin sometime after September 5th. The US already began imposing a 25% tariff on $34B in Chinese imports back on July 6th.

Separately, on Thursday and Friday, the Russian ruble also fell to a 2-year low versus the dollar after the US imposed new sanctions in response to the Novichok poisoning attempt of a former Russian spy and his daughter in the UK a few months ago.

How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 down 0.2%, the Nasdaq up 0.3%, and the Dow down 0.6%.

This Week: Q2 earnings season is coming to a close. With 452 companies (91%) of the S&P 500 reporting, it has been a very strong quarter.

Upside technical resistance, geopolitics, economic data and rising volatility, set the stage for a potentially larger near-term pullback next week.

As expected, the SPX rose a little too quickly this week and hit upside technical resistance. The indicators, lack of earnings releases and few economic reports pointed to a potentially volatile week driven by geopolitics. And while the markets started off the week fairly quiet, there’s little doubt geopolitics (China, Russia, and Turkey specifically) drove the volatility in the latter part of the week. Unfortunately, these issues will likely still be a factor next week.

While the SPX has pulled back a bit this week, it still has room to go before hitting the long-term trend, and it could even go below that in the short-term. Additionally, while earnings season is nearly over, the economic calendar is a little heavier, so next week’s action could be driven by a number of different factors.

Economic Calendar: International Trade (8/14), Retail Sales (8/15), Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (8/15), Leading Economic Indicators (8/17) 
Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: HD, AAP, CSCO, NVDA, WMT.

$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BULLISH. We strongly encourage you to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment of how this website has helped you we would like to know, email us. Share with a friend. Cha-ching.

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