Market Direction:BULLISH alert
issued 2/15/2018
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Last Week Review: Stocks finished the week lower, as the escalation in trade tensions with U.S. trade partners drove concerns about potentially higher inflation and slower global economic growth. Trade negotiations are likely to continue to make headlines and could result in stock market volatility.
On Wednesday (6/20) the European Union announced retaliatory tariffs on $3.2B of US products, which will take effect on June 22. Those products targeted include food products such as orange juice and peanut butter, steel products, bourbon, motorcycles and blue jeans. The EU was unapologetic while also stating that it did not want to be in this position, but had no choice given the "unilateral and unjustified” decision on the part of the U.S. to implement steel and aluminum tariffs which took effect on 6/1.
On Monday (6/18) President Trump escalated trade tensions with China by threatening a 10% tariff on an additional $200B of imports from China, and possibly another $200B after that, if China retaliates. As with past tariff threats, impacted goods will first have to be identified, published, debated, and commented on before they can be finalized. China has said it would continue to respond promptly to all tariffs with comprehensive measures combining quantity and quality. If the US has the upper hand (and I’m not implying that it does), it is mostly due to the fact that China only imports $130B of goods from the U.S., whereas Trump’s tariffs (and proposed tariffs) against China already amount to $450B, which is about 90% of what the U.S. imports from China; so essentially, the trade imbalance is too great for China to continue a dollar for dollar response. To offset that imbalance,
China is expected to target specific businesses and industries that might cause disruptions greater than the dollar amount involved; i.e. companies in states that could be vulnerable in the midterm elections.
How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 down 0.9%, the Nasdaq down 0.7%, and the Dow down 2.0%.
This Week: While anxiety has risen modestly, the SPX back on the long-term trend, so there could be plenty of movement but little or no progress. Playing the wait-and-see game might be worth consideration in the near-term.
Next week is a relatively heavy week with regard to the number of economic reports, and some of them could be potential market movers. While I don’t expect the 3rd read on Q1 GDP to impact the market at all, Friday’s Personal Income & Spending, and Core PCE could.
Last week, there were slightly more downgrades than upgrades, and there are still more negative than positive economic indicators. On one hand, with no surrender in sight among any of the tariff war participants, and a slightly elevated VIX indicating rising anxiety, the potential for downside is there. On the other hand, the SPX has already given up more than 30 points this week and it has come back down to the long-term trend line. This should provide at least some downside technical support.
With more like-for-like activity almost certain on tariffs and no technical pressure really present at the moment, an overall outlook of volatility seems like the most likely outcome for next week.
Economic Calendar: Durable Goods (6/27), Wholesale Inventories (6/27), GDP (6/28), Personal Income and Spending (6/29)
On Monday (6/18) President Trump escalated trade tensions with China by threatening a 10% tariff on an additional $200B of imports from China, and possibly another $200B after that, if China retaliates. As with past tariff threats, impacted goods will first have to be identified, published, debated, and commented on before they can be finalized. China has said it would continue to respond promptly to all tariffs with comprehensive measures combining quantity and quality. If the US has the upper hand (and I’m not implying that it does), it is mostly due to the fact that China only imports $130B of goods from the U.S., whereas Trump’s tariffs (and proposed tariffs) against China already amount to $450B, which is about 90% of what the U.S. imports from China; so essentially, the trade imbalance is too great for China to continue a dollar for dollar response. To offset that imbalance,
China is expected to target specific businesses and industries that might cause disruptions greater than the dollar amount involved; i.e. companies in states that could be vulnerable in the midterm elections.
How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 down 0.9%, the Nasdaq down 0.7%, and the Dow down 2.0%.
This Week: While anxiety has risen modestly, the SPX back on the long-term trend, so there could be plenty of movement but little or no progress. Playing the wait-and-see game might be worth consideration in the near-term.
Next week is a relatively heavy week with regard to the number of economic reports, and some of them could be potential market movers. While I don’t expect the 3rd read on Q1 GDP to impact the market at all, Friday’s Personal Income & Spending, and Core PCE could.
Last week, there were slightly more downgrades than upgrades, and there are still more negative than positive economic indicators. On one hand, with no surrender in sight among any of the tariff war participants, and a slightly elevated VIX indicating rising anxiety, the potential for downside is there. On the other hand, the SPX has already given up more than 30 points this week and it has come back down to the long-term trend line. This should provide at least some downside technical support.
With more like-for-like activity almost certain on tariffs and no technical pressure really present at the moment, an overall outlook of volatility seems like the most likely outcome for next week.
Economic Calendar: Durable Goods (6/27), Wholesale Inventories (6/27), GDP (6/28), Personal Income and Spending (6/29)
Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: LEN, FDS, MKC, NKE, STZ.
$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BULLISH. We strongly encourage you to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment of how this website has helped you we would like to know, email us. Share with a friend. Cha-ching.
$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BULLISH. We strongly encourage you to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment of how this website has helped you we would like to know, email us. Share with a friend. Cha-ching.
Related Link: http://www.stockmarket-direction.com/
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