Sunday, April 29, 2018

Market Direction Week of April 30, 2018©













Market Direction:BULLISH alert issued 2/15/2018

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Last Week Review: Roughly Q1 earnings season is in full swing now. With 263 companies (53%) of the S&P 500 having reported in Q1 so far 82% have beat on the top line.
U.S. large-cap stocks were little changed on the week, but they experienced a slight pullback on Tuesday as investors balanced their optimism about strong first-quarter earnings and improving economic growth with worries about rising interest rates and skepticism about whether there can be better earnings or economic growth ahead. As conditions change, we think investor sentiment is likely to continue to shift quickly from optimism to pessimism, resulting in continued market volatility. Remember, the improving fundamentals of economic and earnings growth can create a solid base to support higher stock prices over time.

French President Emmanuel Macron met with President Trump in Washington D.C. this week. While he and President Trump appeared cordial during the joint press conference, he very clearly disagreed with President Trump on several key topics, when speaking in front of Congress. Macron stressed the need for greater US globalism, pushed the US to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement, and said the US should support the Iran nuclear deal.

This week: we learned that CIA Director Mike Pompeo met secretly with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un over the Easter weekend, likely to test the waters for a meeting with President Trump. While Trump has not fully committed to a future meeting with Kim, it does seem that Kim is interested in meeting with Trump, especially now that he has had some success in creating a weapons program to strengthen his bargaining position. With weapons available to “dismantle” Kim may be able to secure a lifting of US sanctions for doing so. If Kim’s main goal is to develop his country and maintain his power, this may be his best path toward a prosperous North Korea, and it might also explain Kim’s historic meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the DMZ this week.

How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 flat 0.0%, the Nasdaq down 0.4%, and the Dow down 0.6%.

This Week: Despite strong economics and a very strong earnings season, elevated volatility and concerns that Q1 may be the “high-water mark for the year”, are pushing traders to the sidelines. While it hasn’t happened for the past 2 years, it’s beginning to look like “sell in May and go away” may be back in vogue in 2018.

For the full week, the SPX has made virtually no progress, most of the changes in the indicators this week suggest a more bearish direction. As a result, determining the overall net direction is not possible.

It is another busy week, including China’s purchasing managers index (PMI), a Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, UK PMIs, eurozone consumer price index (CPI) and the ADP and non-farm payroll reports in the US.

On the earnings front, big US names include Tesla and Apple, along with numbers from BP, HSBC and Sainsbury's in the UK.

Economic Calendar: Personal Income and Outlay (4/30), ISM Mfg Index (5/1), FOMC Meeting (5/1), International Trade (5/3), Employment Report (5/4)
Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: MCD, GILD, MA, BABA, AAPL.
$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BULLISH. We strongly encourage you to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment of how this website has helped you we would like to know, email us. Share with a friend. Cha-ching.

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