Market Direction Week of April 16, 2018©

Market Direction:BULLISH alert issued 2/15/2018

Stock on the Radar (STAR)© was launched 6/19/2017 Sunday evening. When there is a new stock recommendations for the week it is typically made available late Sunday, so investors can prepare to take a position when the market opens Monday for trading. 

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Last Week Review: U.S. large-cap stocks gained about 2% on the week as trade fears eased slightly, continuing a streak where the S&P 500 has moved by more than 1%, up or down, for its sixth straight week. Concerns regarding trade, monetary policy and inflation will likely continue to prompt bouts of volatility.

While German Chancellor Angela Merkel condemned the use of chemical weapons by Syrian President Bashar al- Assad, she also said Germany would not participate in any military activity in Syria, should the US or other countries decide to take such action.

This week Chinese President Xi Jinping promised foreign companies greater access to China’s financial and manufacturing sectors. He also promised lower tariffs on car imports and harsher punishment for intellectual property rights violators. Some analysts interpreted the speech as a having a conciliatory tone towards U.S. President Donald Trump to ease bilateral trade tensions.

How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 down 2.0%, the Nasdaq down 2.8%, and the Dow down 1.8%.

This Week: Q1 earnings season began this week. With 27 companies (5%) of the S&P 500 having reported in Q1 as of Friday.

Still strong fundamentals and the ramp-up of what is likely to be a very strong Q1 earnings season, may continue to give equities a slight lift next week, but the potential for these positives to be overshadowed by the next tweet or news story from Washington remains a very real risk.  

The SPX has bounced back a bit and the VIX has settled down a bit this week, but neither is telling us that the proverbial “coast is clear”. The SPX is still -7% from the 1/26 high and net negative YTD. The VIX is still about 6 points above its pre-correction lows and where it spent the entirety of 2017. With no agreement in sight on the trade tariff stand-off with China, the potential for a conflict with Russia over military action in Syria, tax disputes with Amazon, data privacy issues with Facebook, and the still revolving staff door in Washington DC, there is no shortage of potential catalysts for more near-term volatility. Don’t let your guard down just yet.

Economic Calendar: Retail Sales (4/16), Empire State Mfg (4/16), Industrial Production (4/17), Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (4/19), Leading Indicators (4/19)

Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: NFLX, BAC, CSX, AXP, UNH. 

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