Market Direction: BULLISH alert
issued 2/15/2018
The economyThe stock market direction is still under pressure.
Equities rebounded this week, ending a two-week skid; the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.0%, the S&P 500 jumped 2.0%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 2.4%. Trading was volatile at times, but smoothed out on Thursday as investors wrapped up the abbreviated week on a positive note. Markets will be closed on March 30 for Good Friday.
Investors kicked off the week with a rally on Monday, pushing the major indices up between 2.7% and 3.3% apiece, following a Wall Street Journal report that the U.S. and China have started negotiating to improve American access to Chinese markets. The news helped ease fears of a trade war, which were elevated after the White House announced tariffs on Chinese imports last week -- prompting Beijing to retaliate with tariffs of its own. Microsoft (MSFT) was particularly strong on Monday, spiking around 7.5%, after Morgan Stanley raised its target price from $110 to $130 -- a new Street high.
The market reversed course on Tuesday, however, with FAANG names -- Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOGL) -- leading the retreat. Market darling NVIDIA (NVDA) tumbled nearly 8.0% after announcing that it has temporarily suspended autonomous driving tests in order to learn more about last week's fatal collision involving a self-driving Uber car. Tesla (TSLA), which is a leader in autonomous driving technology, also dropped around 8.0%.
Stocks struggled for direction on Wednesday, but then rallied on Thursday ahead of the extended Easter weekend. However, unlike many of its FAANG peers, Amazon (AMZN) continued tumbling after an Axios report on Wednesday that President Trump would like to change Amazon's tax treatment, as he believes the company has gotten a free ride from taxpayers. The White House initially responded by saying there aren't any policy changes regarding Amazon at the moment, but the president reiterated his concerns about the company in a tweet on Thursday. AMZN shares lost 3.2% this week in total.
11 of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the week with gains. Less-risky countercyclical groups like consumer staples (+3.5%), utilities (+3.0%), and telecom services (+3.1%) were the top performers, while the heavily-weighted financial sector (+2.7%) also showed relative strength. The top-weighted technology space lagged with a gain of 1.7%, while the consumer discretionary sector was among the worst performers, thanks largely to Amazon, adding 1.1%.
Investors received the Personal Income and Spending report for February on Thursday, and, for the second month in a row, it was in line with expectations. The PCE Price Index increased 1.8% year-over-year after being up 1.7% year-over-year in January, while the core PCE Price Index rose 1.6% year-over-year after three consecutive months of 1.5% year-over-year growth. The key takeaway from the report is that it won't influence Fed officials to significantly alter the course of monetary policy.
In the bond market, the yield curve flattened notably this week, with the 2s10s spread dropping seven basis points to 48 bps -- its lowest level since 2007. The yield on the benchmark 10-yr note declined seven basis points to 2.74%, while the 2-yr yield held steady at 2.26%. Most of the bond buying took place amid the equity sell off on Tuesday.
$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BULLISH. We strongly encourage you to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment of how this website has helped you we would like to know, write us. Share with a friend.
By the numbers the weekly closing index numbers compared to the initial BULLISH recommendation closing numbers:
Stock Market Closing Numbers
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compared to Recommendation Numbers
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2/15/2018
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3/30/2018
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Difference
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25,200.37
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24,103.11
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1,097.26
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7,256.43
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7,063.45
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192.98
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2,731.20
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2,640.87
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90.33
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