Market Direction Week of March 19, 2018©

Market Direction:BULLISH alert issued 2/15/2018

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Last Week Review: Stocks moved lower on the week as volatility remained elevated. To put this volatility into perspective, stocks (as measured by the S&P 500) have advanced or declined by more than 1% in nine of the 11 weeks logged in 2018, compared with 13 such weeks recorded in all of 2017.

Stocks fell modestly for the week after a Friday rally broke a four-day losing streak for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and partially compensated for earlier losses. Small- and mid-caps outperformed larger shares. Within the S&P 500, utilities and real estate shares fared best, helped by a decline in longer-term Treasury yields, which make their healthy dividend payments more attractive in comparison. Conversely, the much larger financials sector, which sees lending margins squeezed by lower interest rates, was among the market’s weaker segments. Materials shares also performed poorly. Friday was a so-called “quadruple witching day,” one of four days in the year in which four types of options and futures contracts expire simultaneously, typically resulting in heightened volatility and trading volumes.

This week, Britain, France and Germany all proposed new economic sanctions against Iran, primarily to enforce the existing nuclear agreement. Separately, German Economic Minister, Peter Altmaier is scheduled to meet with his American counterparts next week in Washington DC, in an effort to stave off a potential trade war over President Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum. President Trump has also threatened to impose a 35% tax on German automobiles, despite the fact that there are more German cars produced in the US than are sold here.

This week, numerous news stories predict that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will both soon be overwhelmingly elected/appointed to serve another term. This would be Xi’s second 5-year term, and with the recent repeal of term-limits, Xi stands to be the most powerful Chinese leader since the death of Chairman Mao Zedong in 1976. Putin has been President consecutively since 2012 and was also previously President from 2000 – 2008.  

How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 down 1.2%, the Nasdaq down 1.0%, and the Dow down 1.5%.

This Week: Day-to-day and intra-day market volatility continues to moderate following the February market correction, but upside progress remains limited due to concerns about trading partner retaliation against proposed steel and aluminum tariffs. And while most economic data continues to be strong, staff shake-ups and other turmoil within the Trump administration may also be contributing to the uncertainty. Next week Wednesday brings a near-certain interest rate hike followed by a press conference from new Fed Chair Powell, which could cause afternoon intra-day volatility on that day only; otherwise the economic calendar is fairly light. 

The week begins quietly, although with the UK/Russia controversy still a developing story, we could get news on this front.

Major data from the UK includes consumer price index (CPI), employment data and the Bank of England (BoE) meeting, while we also get the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, at which the committee is expected to raise rates once again. 

Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: ORCL, FDX, FIVE, NKE, MU. 

$tockMarketDirection proprietary model is currently BULLISH. We strongly encourage you to monitor positions closely, exercise proper money management strategies and follow us at $tockMarketDirection for ALERTS we may issue advising a change in the current market direction. Stay tuned and follow us. If you have a testimonial or comment of how this website has helped you we would like to know, email us. Share with a friend. Cha-ching.

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