Market Direction Weekly Closing Numbers©

Market Direction: BULLISH alert issued 11/10/2016

The economy

The past trading week featured sideways action in the major averages as the S&P 500 shed 0.1% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%) outperformed. Small caps saw relative weakness with the Russell 2000 falling 1.7% after being at the forefront of the post-election rally.

The first session of the trading week was headlined by news from Vienna, where non-OPEC producers agreed to reduce their output by 558,000 barrels per day. In addition, a Saudi official indicated that his country may implement a larger cut than what was agreed to on November 30. Crude oil surged to a fresh 2016 high on the news, but pulled back as the week wore on to end the week with a modest gain.

Equity indices surged on Tuesday as the Fed began its two-day meeting, which concluded with a Wednesday rate hike. However, in addition to increasing the fed funds target range by 25 basis points, the FOMC signaled the intention to raise rates three times in 2017, which was up from market expectations for two rate hikes.

The FOMC decision and guidance weighed on Treasuries and boosted the dollar. Selling in the 10-yr note pushed up its yield to 2.60% from last Friday's 2.47% while the U.S. Dollar Index jumped 1.3% to its best level since early 2003.

The past week saw increased trading volume due to Wednesday's FOMC decision, but participation is expected to be on the decline going into the last two weeks of the year.

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By the numbers the weekly closing index numbers compared to the initial BULLISH recommendation closing numbers: 

Stock Market Closing Numbers
compared to Recommendation Numbers
	11/10/2016	12/16/2016	Difference
Dow Jones	18,807.88	19,843.41	1,035.53
Nasdaq	5,208.80	5,437.16	228.36
S&P 500	2,167.48	2,258.07	90.59

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