Market Direction Week of August 8, 2016

Market Direction: BULLISH alert issued 6/2/2016

Last Week Review: Stocks started the week lower after stress tests on European banks concerned investors around the world, but a strong jobs report here at home pushed the S&P 500 and NASDAQ to all-time highs. Despite the improving job market in June and July, we think the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to wait for better economic data to raise interest rates again. That means interest rates are likely to rise only modestly, staying lower for longer.

How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, the Nasdaq up 1.1%, and the Dow up 0.6%.

This Week: While US earnings season is clearly slowing, releases from the heavyweights such as Disney, Alibaba and Ralph Lauren should provide investors with sufficient interest. Alibaba data will certainly be of interest, given that it will shed further light on Chinese consumer behavior on the same day as the Chinese retail sales figure.

An interesting week ahead sees markets focus as much on the past as the future, with the residual effects of the Bank of England’s blockbuster package of easing and US jobs data likely to help drive things along. On an economic front, China will take centre stage as trade, inflation and retail sales data promise to shed light on the continued slowdown.

Economic Calendar: Productivity and Costs (8/9), JOLTS (8/10), Import and Export Prices (8/11), Consumer Sentiment (8/12)

Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: MYL, AGN, SNI, DIS, KORS.

 

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