Market Direction Weekly Closing Numbers

The economy

The stock market continues to trade in a choppy fashion. This time the jobs report led the charge for why the market traded down. Here is what else the stock market has been showing us the past few weeks.

The stock market appeared to be on track for its third consecutive weekly advance going into Friday, but a disappointing Employment Situation report for May invited some selling ahead of the weekend. The trading week was underscored by range-bound action near the highest levels of the year.

Investors received some economic data, which included in-line April Personal Income (+0.4%; Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), in-line core PCE Prices (+0.2%; Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), and a hotter than expected Personal Income report for April (+1.0%; Briefing.com consensus 0.7%). However, it was Friday's release of the Employment Situation report for May that caught the attention of most participants.

According to the report, only 38,000 nonfarm payrolls were added in May (Briefing.com consensus 155,000) while private sector payroll growth (+25,000; Briefing.com consensus 160,000) was also well short of expectations. Interestingly, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% from 5.0% (Briefing.com consensus 4.9%), but that was fueled by a decline in labor force participation rate (to 62.6% from 62.8%).

The disappointment on the jobs front was met with a swift adjustment to rate hike expectations as the probability of a June hike, expressed by the fed funds futures market, dropped to 6.0% from 30.0% a week ago. Expectations for July move also took a hit, falling to 35.0% from 62.0% one week ago.
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By the numbers the weekly closing index numbers compared to the initial sign-up and subscribe recommendation closing numbers: 

Stock Market Closing Numbers
compared to Recommendation Numbers
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Nasdaq	?	?	?
S&P 500	?	?	?

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