Sunday, June 26, 2016

Market Direction Week of June 27, 2016













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Last Week Review: Stocks were down sharply in response to the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union Friday, but were only down about 1.5% on the week. And while stocks fell, bond prices went up, highlighting the importance of diversification through volatile markets. It's impossible to know with certainty which direction markets will head from here, but if you maintain the mix of stocks and bonds that is right for your comfort with risk and long-term financial goals, we believe that you will be well prepared to stay invested through volatile markets from here.

The Brexit referendum surprised the markets in a big way and now the UK must begin the 2-year long extrication process. Unlike many market moving events, this one is unlikely to blow over in a few weeks. While no one knows exactly how it will end, it’s a fair assumption that high volatility will be with us for a while.

How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 down 1.6%, the Nasdaq down 1.9%, and the Dow down 1.6%.

This Week: After the momentous events of last week, it will seem odd to have to adjust to the normal, ordinary course of economic events. The future of the continent will now be debated at every turn, and will dominate markets for weeks to come. There is still plenty of data to come through, most notably from the US, so markets and investors will have their hands full for the time being. 

For the past several weeks, Bloomberg futures market’s forecast of when/if the Federal Reserve might hike US interest rates again the landscape has now changed dramatically. the likelihood of a rate hike in July, September and November dropped to zero, but the futures market is now pricing in a not insignificant probability of a rate cut this year. The world has changed indeed.

Economic Calendar: International Trade in Goods (6/27), GDP (6/28), Personal Income and Outlays (6/29), ISM Mfg Index (6/30)

Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: FDS, NKE, STZ, PAYX.

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