Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Market Direction Mid Week Update













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U.S. stocks finished slightly lower on Wednesday, as polls showed the outcome of a U.K. referendum on whether to leave the European Union remained too close to call a day ahead of the vote.

An online survey by Opinium showed 45% of respondents are in favor of ditching the EU while 44% prefer to stay. Nine percent of voters were undecided.

“Brexit is an iceberg,,” said Douglas Borthwick, managing director of Chapdelaine Foreign Exchange. Investors can be fairly confident of the market outcome if the U.K. votes to remain, but “none of us can fathom how deep it goes under the surface” if British voters opt to leave, he said.

After switching between gains and losses all session, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.17% shed 3.45, or 0.2%, to close at 2,085.45. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.27%  fell 48.90 points, or 0.3%, to end at 17,780.83, and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.22% dropped 10.44 points, or 0.2%, to close at 4,833.32.

If the U.K. votes to remain the EU, it will provide some short-term relief to the market but the upside will be limited due to a “challenged fundamental backdrop,” said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, an equity strategist at J.P. Morgan. However, a Brexit would be a bigger negative for stocks with selling pressure likely amplified by investors unwinding their stock positions.

Referendum results from the first counting areas are expected around 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, or 12:30 a.m. London time on Friday.

The Brexit vote is a “binary event and as such it can’t be fully priced in,” said Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments. “One way or the other, there will be a market reaction,” Thomas said, adding that investors should brace for a spike in volatility VIX, +14.56%

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said considerable uncertainties remain for the economic outlook, including the so-called Brexit vote in the U.K. on Thursday.

Investors mostly shrugged off a second day of congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on the economy and monetary policy. On Tuesday, Yellen said a possible Brexit and other risks justify a cautious policy approach. But on Wednesday, the Fed chief focused on the U.S. fundamentals, noting that economy is picking up in the second quarter and she is “hopeful” there will be a commensurate pickup in job growth.

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