Market Direction Weekly Closing Numbers

The economy

The stock market continues to defy what was believed to be a downturn in the market. The stock market’s performance has not changed our model but if this uptrend continues it will signal an ALERT change. 

The trading week was pretty quiet on the economic front, but a handful of reports that did cross the wires pointed to a potential rebound from the weakness at the end of the first quarter. April New Home Sales (619K, Briefing.com consensus 521K), April Pending Home Sales (+5.1%; Briefing.com consensus 0.6%), and April Durable Orders (+3.4%; Briefing.com consensus 0.6%) beat expectations while the second estimate of first-quarter GDP (+0.8%; Briefing.com consensus 0.9%) and the final reading of the Michigan Sentiment Index for May (94.7; Briefing.com consensus 95.5) were close to expectations, but missed.

Altogether, the economic data released during the past week kept the possibility of a summer rate hike alive. As a result, Fed officials that spoke since last Friday reminded investors that the FOMC is ready to raise rates if economic data does not take a turn for the worse. This message was consistent with remarks from two weeks ago that boosted the probability of a June hike from 8.0% to 30.0%.
Rate hike expectations, as indicated by the fed funds futures market, essentially held their ground throughout the week with the likelihood of a June hike remaining at 30.0%. However, expectations for a hike in July inched up to 62.0% from 55.0% at the end of last week.

The Dollar Index (95.75) enjoyed its fourth consecutive weekly rise, but the 0.4% increase represented the slowest weekly advance during the past month, which saw the index notch a fresh low for the year and climb 4.2% from that low point.

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By the numbers the weekly closing index numbers compared to the initial sign-up and subscribe recommendation closing numbers: 

Stock Market Closing Numbers
compared to Recommendation Numbers
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Nasdaq	?	?	?
S&P 500	?	?	?

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