Friday, April 1, 2016

Market Direction Weekly Closing Numbers














The economy

The first two days of the week were very quiet with investors sitting on their hands ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech that was scheduled for Wednesday. Ms. Yellen spoke before the Economic Club of New York and her remarks were interpreted as decidedly dovish. All in all, Fed Chair Yellen echoed her recent comments in the speech, which was a relief for the market that was becoming concerned about the Fed Chair assuming a more hawkish posture, akin to St. Louis Fed President and FOMC voting member James Bullard.

Over the past couple weeks Mr. Bullard was quoted by various outlets as cautioning that the next rate hike is not far off and that a hike in April is entirely possible. However, all those worries were cast aside after Ms. Yellen's speech focused heavily on global growth concerns and emphasized the importance of employing a cautious approach to raising rates. As a result, stocks, Treasuries, and gold surged at the expense of the dollar.

By putting so much emphasis on international developments, Fed Chair Yellen essentially moved the goalposts, indicating the Fed is no longer targeting just "progress towards 2.0% inflation and an unemployment rate below 6.5%," but also looking to maintain global economic stability.

As the week wore on, investors received the Employment Situation report for March (215K; Briefing.com consensus 200K), which showed average hourly earnings growth of 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%). This report strengthened the rate hike argument, but Fed Chair Yellen's speech was still fresh in the minds of investors. Accordingly, stocks began Friday under pressure, but rallied off their lows as investors weighed domestic economic conditions against the global growth picture.

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By the numbers the weekly closing index numbers compared to the initial sign-up and subscribe recommendation closing numbers: 

Stock Market Closing Numbers 
compared to Recommendation Numbers

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