Market Direction Week of April 11, 2016

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Last Week Review: The S&P 500 fell last week, and over the past four weeks, has failed to find a true direction, bouncing between positive and negative performance. Weighing on investor sentiment was a renewed concern about slowing global growth. While our long-term outlook for the market is positive, the path there will likely not be a straight line. Keep in mind that, on average, the stock market has recorded more than three dips (a 5% drop) and one correction (a 10% drop) every year, giving you the opportunity to buy stocks at lower prices.

A lot has happened in the past month, but the biggest change has been the stabilization and rebound in crude oil prices, which has lifted equities into positive territory YTD. The big question from here is whether that trend can continue.

How the market finished last week, the S&P 500 down 1.2%, the Nasdaq down 1.3%, and the Dow down 1.2%.

This Week: Q1 earnings season unofficially begins on Monday 4/11 when Alcoa (AA) is scheduled to announce.

While the 7-week equity rally has finally paused, technical support and oil prices continue to hold up. There are still a lot of positive signs this trend can continue. There is no real market-moving economic reports to watch until Wednesday, so the likely result will be neutral for the first half of the week. But with PPI, Retail Sales and CPI all scheduled for later in the week, as well as a few more earnings reports, the indicators point to a pickup in volatility by week’s end.

Economic Calendar: Retail Sales (4/13), PPI-FD (4/13), Consumer Price Index (4.14), Industrial Production (4/15)

Some of the major earnings announcements on deck: AA, JPM, RAI, C, OZRK.

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