Market Direction Weekly Closing Numbers

The economy

The stock market continued its rebound off February lows, locking in its fifth consecutive weekly gain. The S&P 500 spiked 1.3% for the week and the advance lifted the benchmark index into positive territory for the year. As a result, the S&P 500 will enter the last full week of March with a year-to-date gain of 0.3%.

Two weeks ago, the market's main focus was on the European Central Bank and there was no shortage of central bank talk during this past week either. However, unlike the ECB, the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and the Federal Reserve all stuck to their guns and held the policy line.

The stock market saw little movement on Monday and Tuesday, but Wednesday afternoon featured a rally in equities after the Federal Reserve acquiesced to the market's desire and did not introduce another rate hike. The Fed held pat even though a 4.9% unemployment rate and a 2.3% year-over-year increase in core CPI offered data-based grounds to raise the fed funds rate or, at the very least, to strike a more hawkish-sounding tone regarding the glide path to normalization. Instead, the Fed struck a more dovish tone than what the market had expected and dialed back its own rate hike outlook. Specifically, the Fed's dot plot now shows that policymakers expect only two more rate hikes in 2016 after the previous forecast called for four.

According to the dot plot, the median fed funds rate at the end of 2016 is projected at 0.875% vs 1.375% in December while the median rate at the end of 2017 is projected at 1.9% versus 2.4% after the December meeting.

Furthermore, the Fed cut its 2016 growth forecast for the U.S. to 2.2% from 2.4% and adjusted its 2016 core PCE forecast to 1.4-1.7% from 1.5-1.7%. In addition to a dimmed view of domestic growth, the Fed mentioned that "global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks" after not expressing a similar concern in December.

Altogether, the Fed's newfound dovishness was music to the stock market's ear while the Dollar Index logged its third consecutive weekly decline, falling 1.1% to levels last seen in October.

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By the numbers the weekly closing index numbers compared to the initial sign-up and subscribe recommendation closing numbers: 

Stock Market Closing Numbers
compared to Recommendation Numbers
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